[Exlcusive] Baer Chain Crisis: High Ownership Concentration And Large Stakeholders Seek Cash Out
摘要： Two rounds of pump and one round of deep dump have raised the question of whether Baer Chain is on the verge of a crash.
Two rounds of pump and one round of deep dump within three months have drawn attention to Baer Chain's performance on the secondary market.
BRC is the token coin issued by Baer Chain. According to BRC's transaction consideration on ZB.com, the price of BRC on June 3 went over 8.2 USD, an overall increase of nearly 13 times in three months.
In April 2018, Singapore Baer Chain Foundation was established, launching Baer Chain officially. In the past year, Baer Chain has introduced four simple games, making big bucks in the market. “Right now BRC price is oscillating at high levels and big market players plan to control the circulation of BRC on the secondary market through locked positions to further control BRC's market price.” A researcher of secondary markets informed the reporter of the ChainDD App and warned that investors need to be vigilant at all times against BRC's collapse at a high price point.
Baer Chain's rapid expansion relying on games
In May 2018, Baer Chain launched its private round financing and announced officially that it plans to develop a “gaming public chain” and create a game ecological platform using distributed intelligent contracts. However, one year has passed and Baer's public chain is yet to go online. Its open source codes can't be found on GitHub either.
In July 2018, Baer Chain announced the successful fundraising of 30 million USD with Biben Capital and Orient Capital as the lead investors. The injection of this fund kindled the Baer Chain's adventurous spirit in its market expansion.
Then came October and Baer Chain's first game “Gazillionaire” was officially launched. At the same time, Baer Chain's token coin BRC became eligible for trading on ZB.com.
“Gazillionaire” is a business simulation game and players can earn BRCs by developing their business including purchasing plots of land, opening shops, and hiring shop assistants and managers. However, “Gazillionaire” hasn't adopted any blockchain technology but only added functions for players to earn points as well as deposit and withdraw coins to a centralized little game.
A player can deposit coins by transferring fund to the platform from the address of his or her bundled ETH wallet. Vice versa, BRCs earned by a player in the game can be transferred to the exchange using wallet tools and fiat money can be cashed from the exchange.
The official advertisement of “Gazillionaire” promised that the static payback period is 100 days and the investment period is one year, earning a return that's 3.6 times of the investment. After one years players may continue investing in and earning from the game.
It's like a player leases a shop for “a year” in the game and the daily revenue of the shop goes to the player. The size of the revenue depends on how much and how long the player invests. After a year, the shop will stop generating revenue and the player needs to pay more for the shop to re-open.
The promotional staff of Baer Chain told the ChainDD App that the total amount of coins deposited weekly in the game exceeds 100 million and players are able to recover their investment in less than 100 days if they hoard their coins and sell them later. Driven by monetary gains, Baer Chain has recruited a large number of players offline using “rebates” as motivation.
The ChainDD App was informed by a businessman from Shidian county of Yunan province that the Baer Chain's promotional activities have reached even small places like their county. Swayed by the platform's promotion, some of his friends have purchased BRCs.
Since in the game, players deposit and withdraw coins on the public chain, the ChainDD App investigated and sorted nearly 35,000 pieces of on-chain trading data in the eight months since the game “Gazillionaire” went online. The data show that in the period from October 18, 2018 to June 12, 2019, 630,015 ETH were deposited into the game “Gazillionaire”, with a total value of 102 million USD, demonstrating the popularity of the game.
However, if you download and then log onto the game, you will discover that players don't really care about product experience, but the profitability of BRCs. The game which exhibits a strong air of a ponzi scheme, is becoming an arbitrage tool in the hands of the players. According to statistics by the ChainDD App, in the period from October 18, 2018 to June 12, 2019, a total of 583,157 ETH coins were withdrawn from “Gazillionaire”, with a total value of 94.7744 million USD.
By now, coins worth of only approximately 5,000 ETH remain in the game's depositing address. According to the data, players are losing interest in the game. Baer Chain needs to find a way to curb large amount of capital outflows since if left unchecked, capital outflows will have some severe adverse impact on BRC on the secondary market.
Baer Chain is seemingly losing its capability of creating new popular games
In January 2019, Baer Chain introduced a shooting type game “Super Soldiers”. In this game, players use BRCs to purchase ammunition for the killing of the monsters in the game. After shooting a monster dead, a player will be randomly rewarded BRCs.
The game “Super Soldiers” is a high consumption game and users need to spend coins to purchase ammunition. However, the probability of being rewarded with coins after a player kills a monster is highly random. In a way, “Super Soldiers” provides a channel for the players to use their BRCs and curbs to a large degree BRC's outflow into the secondary market. As a consequence, the pressure of coin price depreciation due to large-scale sell-offs of BRC is relieved.
After “Super Soldiers”, Baer Chain officially introduced another game similar to “Gazillionaire” in March, namely, the game “Global City”. Players pay diamonds to build landmark buildings in the game and its revenue period is 12 months. The game officially promised that players will be able to recover their investment in somewhere between 90 and 120 days and start making profits. The annual return will be three to four times of their investment or even higher.
However, the ChainDD App reporter has discovered via Etherscan that by June 12, there were only 44 pieces of on-chain transaction data, a sharp contrast to the popularity of “Gazillionaire”.
50 addresses are in control of more than 87% of all coins. How does Baer Chain further control their circulation?
Right now, the Baer Chain team is facing sell-off pressure on two fronts: players who demand to cash their coins and the gradual lifting of the ban on selling of the coins belonging to early investors and team members.
In order to further control its market liquidity, Baer Chain officially launched its MEP (Million Ecology Project) on April 1 and teams who are competing for super nodes need to lock 300,000 BRCs to be qualified.
According to the rules, if a team fails to be elected a super node, the BRCs locked will be returned all at once within seven working days since Baer Chain's mainnet goes online and starts 1:1 mapping. On the contrary, if a team succeeds in being elected a super node, its BRCs will stay locked until the team voluntarily gives up its qualification.
On April 28, 21 super nodes and 30 back-up nodes were successfully elected on Baer Chain, meaning there would be 6.3 million BRCs locked for a long term and 9 million BRCs locked until the mainnet goes online. According to the BRC market price of the time, the value of the locked coins exceeded 60 million USD.
Beginning from May 23, BRC's price has been buoyed up rapidly at the speed of nearly 10% every day and topped 8 USD at one point during trading, a new historical record high for BRC. According to the data, there are 75,533 BRC holding addresses, among which, 50 addresses are in control of 87% of the coins. Currently, 100 million BRCs are circulating in the market with a circulation rate of 17.24%.
Candlestick chart of BRC on the secondary market
“Qufen FIND” believes that Baer Chain reduces secondary market circulation more through the control of total coins in circulation to make sure its token coin BRC's relative stability and confuse those inexperienced and small individual investors who are kept in the dark. Furthermore, the so called “investment recovery” is priced in BRC. For the project team of Baer Chain, the daily sell-off risk of the coins generated in the games can be both calculated and controlled. Players who join the game in the later stages will have to face the risk of not being able to recover their invested capital after the games go offline.
The ChainDD App reporter went on Baer Chain's official website and sensed that the website gives out a strong feeling of a “Ponzi scheme”. On the website, in the sections of game tutorials and platform announcements, pomposity can be seen everywhere. Baer Chain also made the announcement that it will get listed as a blockchain game company in the third quarter of this year and is in the process of building a listed company worth of tens of billions.
Furthermore, according to some uncorroborated rumor obtained by the ChainDD App, the police is keeping a close watch on Baer Chain and has taken actions against the company. Vincent, the actual controller of the company and key node investors are in hiding overseas. All important in-house teams have send notifications to their team members, urging them to sell their coins as soon as possible to minimize losses. From the same information source, ChainDD has further learned that Baer Chain's capital chain has ruptured and panic seems to be the mood of the moment inside the company. Its “time of survival” may not exceed two months. (Article first published exclusively on the ChainDD App.)