HT Investment Opportunity and Strategy Analysis
摘要： Platform tokens often have a good ROI performance in the bull market. HT as the token of a leading exchange is a good investment target.
HT is the ticker of Huobi Token, which is the Huobi Global Ecological Token with a limited total supply of 500 M. On Jun. 24 2019, HT hit 19th by market capitalization and ranked 2nd among all platform tokens. With in-depth analysis of the current HT investment opportunity and strategy, TokenGazer presents the following significant points of view:
- lPlatform tokens often have a good ROI performance in the bull market. HT, as the token of a leading cryptocurrency exchange, is a good investment target.
- lFor an investor holding more than $100,000 worth of cryptocurrency, it is wise to include 5,000 HT in his portfolio (worth about $18,600, 18.6% of his total assets).
- lOn condition that the rules of Huobi Prime remain unchanged, participating in Huobi Prime with 5,000 HT will bring maximum revenue.
- lHuobi FastTrack allows users holding enough HT to enjoy a zero-cost voting and token listing mechanism and participate in token sale at a discounted price. This is not very risky for long-term HT holders and is worth a try.
- lHT’s buyback-destruction mechanism and tiered fee structure are expanding HT use cases and will boost HT value in the future. Therefore, long-term holding of HT will bring high returns.
Huobi Prime (Lite)
Huobi Global officially launched Huobi Prime in March 2019, aiming to discover promising blockchain applications and promote the development of high-quality blockchain projects.
So far Huobi Prime and Prime Lite have launched 4 projects, ROI of which is shown in the following figure:
It is shown in the figure above that the projects listed via Huobi Prime (Lite) had a high ROI on the first day, which subsequently showed different degrees of downward adjustment.
In view of the large user base and brand effect of Huobi Global and the good quality of projects listed via Huobi Prime, token prices of these projects are not likely to fall on debut. Therefore, holding HT and participating in Huobi Prime token sale are very profitable. The only risk may be the fall in HT prices during HT holding period.
Based on rules of the last Prime Trading, there will be two rounds: the first round will be completed on a first come first serve basis through market orders, and the second round will be completed through system matching. Users with unused personal cap are able to place limit buy orders and the system will match all existing buys and sells after trading time ends. Order amount expected to be filled:
If the Prime Trading rules remain unchanged, in the third Prime Trading it will be very difficult for participants to get project tokens in the first round, so they need to try to get a high individual cap in the second round. The individual cap for an investor is proportional to the number of participants in the Prime Trading and this investor’s lowest daily HT holding. Therefore, in order to get the highest individual cap in the second round, an investor’s lowest daily HT holding over a certain period has to reach 5000 (currently worth about $16,750) before the project is listed.
The figure below shows HT price trend over the past six months. It can be seen that HT price has maintained an upward trend since February 2019. Red dots in the figure represent the project listing time via Huobi Prime (Lite). It is clearly seen by the hour that during the first few hours after the projects were listed, HT price fell to some extent and then recovered. Therefore, it is wise to buy HT during this period.
In summary, TokenGazer believes that it is wise to buy HT during the first few hours after a project is listed via Huobi Prime (Lite). Users can reserve 5000 HT to participate in Huobi Prime token sale, in order to get the highest individual cap. Based on the performance of previous projects and using conservative calculations, we provide the optimal strategy for users who have obtained the tokens sold in Huobi Prime: sell the tokens to take profit when the token price doubles on the first day of listing.
In order to improve and enrich the coin listing system of Huobi Global, to attract more users and project communities and discover projects with greater community support, Huobi Global renamed Prime Lite to FastTrack, which serves as one of the core token-listing channels for Huobi Global.
FastTrack rules can be summarized as the following:
- lThe number of votes a user can cast will depend on his minimum HT holding (snapshotted randomly on a daily basis) during the period from the last voting day to this one, subject to a floor of 1,000HT and cap of 5,000HT.
- lThe project that gets the most votes in a given week will be listed on Huobi Global’s main board the same day.
- lUsers who cast HT for a winning project will have their HT at least partially exchanged for the winning token at 50% off market price. The remaining HT will be returned to users.
- lUsers who fails to cast for the winning project will have their HT fully returned.
- lWinners will share in about 500,000 $USDT worth of the tokens at 50% (or higher) off market price.
- lAll tokens received via token sale will be burnt.
According to Huobi Global official announcement, Atlas Protocol (ATP) has won the FastTrack Phase 1 Voting Round 1 with 15,248,017 HT votes:
As is shown in the chart, ATP won this voting round by a very large margin. However, due to the long minimum holding period required by this FastTrack round, there were only 6,572 participants, which was much fewer than that of Huobi Prime. Approximately 500,000 USDT worth of tokens were sold by Atlas Protocol. The average number of votes is 4,305 HT per capita, with an average individual cap of 141 USDT. Subsequent FastTrack listed projects will see an increase in the number of participants and a cut in individual cap due to the reduction of required holding period.
Overall, users with enough HT can enjoy a zero-cost voting and have a chance to get the winning token at 50% off market price. Users who fail to cast for the winning project will have their HT fully returned. Meanwhile, HT voted for the winning project will be burnt. FastTrack can be regarded as a bonus provided for those who hold HT for participating in Huobi Prime, though the individual cap is limited.
HT Buyback and Destruction Plan
As per the original Huobi Token (HT) buyback plan, Huobi Global spends 20% of its quarterly revenue on HT buyback and airdrops these HT to HT holders. Then community members voted to switch from the “buyback-airdrop” model to the “buyback-destruction” model. HT received in ThunderCore’s Prime Lite token sale (the first project listed via Prime Lite) have been destroyed and HT received via FastTrack will also be destroyed later. The destruction record is as the following:
The total value of HT destroyed by Huobi Global in Q1 2019 was about $16.22 million, slightly exceeding the total value of BNB destroyed by Binance. Therefore it is safe to say that the two leading exchanges are in fierce competition with each other with very similar trading volume.
The buyback-destruction mechanism can reduce the total amount of HT on a quarterly basis, and HT received through each FastTrack token sale in the future will be destroyed as well (about 2 million USDT worth of HT to be destroyed per month). There is no destruction cap mentioned in the buyback plan, so the continuous destruction of HT in the future will give an increase to HT unit price. Therefore, HT has a great potential of appreciation in the long run.
HT Tiered Fee Structure
According to the latest news, Huobi Global plans to implement a tiered fee structure and start to support paying trading fees with HT at 12:00 (GMT+8) on July 1. The details are as the following:
General Tiered Fee Structure
Normal users will continue to enjoy referral income, subject to a cumulative rebate cap of 5000 *points per invitee (with exception of Huobi Global Elites where there will be no cap applied); Applicable conversion rates are as such: 1 Point (Point Card):1USDT, and HT conversion is based on prevailing market price.
Professional Trader Tired Fee Program
Users under the Professional Trader Tiered Fee Program will not receive referral fees under the Super Rebate program.
HT holding and trading volume:
At 0:00 A.M. (GMT+8) every day, the system calculates users’ trading volume for the past 30 days (converted into BTC). Users’ HT holdings are based on random snapshots taken the day before. Users’ tier level and transaction fee rates are automatically updated at 4:00 A.M. (GMT+8) every day, and transaction volume in BTC is converted according to the closing price of BTC trading pairs at 0:00 A.M. (GMT+8).
Rules for proposed Tiered Fee Structure program:
- The above-mentioned proposed tiered fee structure relates only to crypto-crypto trading (including margin trading), and is applicable only to trading fee payment, and does not apply to withdrawal fee and HB10 in/out exchange transaction costs. Separate policies are being formulated for other products, such as margin interest, OTC, contract trading, and will be announced when ready.
- After the launch of the tiered transaction fee program, Point Cards can still be used, however, Point Card and the new tiered transaction fee program are mutually exclusive and cannot be applied at the same time;
- If there is Point Card balance remaining in the account, Point Card mode will be set as default, and users need to manually switch to tiered transaction fee mode and choose to pay trading fees with HT;
- Point Cards can continued to be deducted to pay interest incurred from Margin Trading.
Based on HT holding and trading volume, fee rate for professional users is divided into 9 levels. The Level 1 maker base fee rate is 0.07% and the taker base fee rate is 0.085%. The Level 9 maker base fee rate is 0.015% and the taker base fee rate is 0.03%.
With the adoption of the tiered fee structure and transaction fee paid in HT, holding HT can significantly reduce transaction costs. Thus, HT use cases are expanded, which gives an increase to HT value.
Based on the analysis above, TokenGazer now presents HT investment opportunity and strategy as the following:
- lAccording to HT price changes analyzed in this report, large amount HT sell off often takes place in the first few hours after Huobi Prime token listing, so it is wise to buy HT during this period of time.
- lIn general, ROI of a project will peak in the first day it is listed via Huobi Prime. Based on the performance of previous projects and conservative calculations, TokenGazer thinks it is wise to sell the project tokens to take profit on the first day when the token price doubles.
- lPlatform tokens often have a good ROI performance in the bull market. HT as the token of a leading exchange is a good investment target.
- lFor investors holding more than $100,000 worth of cryptocurrency, participating in Huobi Prime token sales with 5000 HT will bring them maximum profit.
- lHuobi FastTrack allows investors holding enough HT to enjoy a zero-cost voting and token listing mechanism and to participate in token sales at a 50% discount on token price. This is not very risky for long-term HT holders and is worth participating, though the individual cap is not impressive.
- lHT’s buyback-destruction mechanism and tiered fee structure are expanding HT use cases and will boost HT value in the future. Therefore, long-term holding of HT is very profitable.
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